Tesla’s new robots promises a cyber age, but not just yet

Tesla’s latest showcase of its humanoid robot, Optimus, stole the spotlight at the company’s recent Cybercab event, overshadowing the highly anticipated reveal of its robotaxi. According to reports, while the robotaxi presentation received a lukewarm response, Optimus garnered attention for its interactive abilities, including serving drinks, engaging in games, and mingling with guests.
Elon Musk initially introduced the concept of Tesla’s humanoid robot in 2021, pitching Optimus as a future breakthrough in household robotics. At the Cybercab event, Musk elaborated on his vision, suggesting that the robot could eventually perform tasks such as mowing lawns, babysitting, and shopping for groceries. Musk claimed that Optimus will likely retail between $20,000 and $30,000, though he provided no specific timeline for its release to the public.
Limited autonomy, assisted performance
Although Optimus impressed attendees with its ability to walk, play games, and engage in light tasks, reports indicate that its actions were not fully autonomous. Attendees noted that Tesla’s engineers remotely assisted the robot, raising questions about how much of the performance was truly independent. Robert Scoble, a technology analyst who attended the event, stated that human operators intervened in many interactions, suggesting the robot’s current AI capabilities remain limited. Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas further confirmed in a report that the robot depended on “tele-ops (human intervention),” emphasising that Optimus is not yet capable of operating entirely on its own.
Nonetheless, the latest model of Optimus, known as Gen 2, showcased several technical upgrades over its initial 2022 prototype. Optimus can now balance on one leg, self-calibrate its movements, and manipulate objects with improved dexterity, a notable advancement from its earlier iteration. Yet, some robotics experts remain unconvinced. Carlotta Berry, an engineering professor at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology, noted in a separate report that Optimus still lags behind other humanoid robots such as Boston Dynamics’ Atlas, which can perform complex movements like parkour. Berry highlighted that Tesla’s robot still has room for improvement, especially in natural language processing and dexterous hand manipulation.
Humanoid robot market poised for growth
Tesla’s ambitions for Optimus extend well beyond household tasks, with Musk describing the robot as potentially “the biggest product ever of any kind.” According to a report by Goldman Sachs, the market for humanoid robots could reach $38 billion by 2035, spurred on by rapid developments in AI technology. Musk’s predictions reflect this outlook, as he anticipates that Optimus could one day contribute to labour-intensive industries, potentially addressing shortages in sectors like manufacturing.
The Optimus robot incorporates technology developed for Tesla’s electric vehicles, including computer vision and deep learning algorithms, to perceive its surroundings. According to Tesla, Optimus is equipped with a central AI system that allows it to map its environment and perform tasks using a variety of sensors and cameras. Tesla’s engineers have integrated a “natural motion” reference system into the robot, which enables it to learn from recorded human motions. Despite this, experts in the field of robotics, such as Alexander Kernbaum of SRI International, have expressed scepticism, indicating that while Tesla’s robot may suit general-purpose tasks, significant advancements will be required to achieve the flexibility and precision needed for specialised applications.
Production plans and timeline uncertainties
According to Musk, Tesla aims to begin limited production of Optimus by 2025, initially for internal use within the company’s factories. The company expects to make the robot available to external customers by 2026, though exact timelines remain uncertain. The estimated retail price range for Optimus, as stated by Musk, is expected to be more affordable than a Tesla vehicle in the long term, potentially dropping as production scales up.
While Tesla has yet to provide a concrete roadmap for Optimus’ development, the Cybercab event served as a platform to showcase the robot’s current capabilities. Although some attendees were sceptical of Musk’s ambitious timeline, Optimus drew significant interest as Tesla’s latest foray into the robotics market. Experts believe it will take several more years before Tesla’s vision of a versatile, general-purpose humanoid robot is realised.